In the world of strategic planning, there’s often a strong pull toward precision — toward forecasting models, data points, and algorithms that promise to predict the future. But here’s the truth: strategy is not science. It isn’t a precise, mathematical formula that can be locked in a spreadsheet and trusted to deliver predictable outcomes. Strategy is a directional compass that guides your organization toward its goals. It’s about making decisions, adjusting as you go, and adapting to the unpredictable landscape.
Strategy is Directional, Not Detailed
Think about this: You’re planning a road trip. You have a general route in mind, thanks to your trusty GPS. You know the destination. But do you really think your GPS can predict every single stoplight, detour, or weather delay that will pop up along the way? Of course not. That’s because a map can tell you the route, but it can’t predict the details of the journey.
This is how strategy works. You know where you want to go, but the exact details? Well, they’re always in flux. Strategy gives you the broad strokes — the vision, the direction — but it’s not a rigid blueprint. It’s a framework for making decisions in an environment that’s constantly changing. Markets shift. Consumer behavior evolves. New technologies emerge. You need a strategy that can bend and flex as these factors change.
That’s why, while forecasting models and detailed plans are valuable, they can’t give you the whole picture. Strategy isn’t about dictating every step with unflinching certainty. It’s about making smart, adaptable decisions based on what you know today — with room to adjust as new information comes in.
Forecasting Models Are Helpful, But They Aren’t Crystal Balls
Let’s be clear: forecasting models have a place in strategic planning. They help you understand trends, historical patterns, and potential outcomes. But they don’t guarantee anything. The future isn’t written in numbers — and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something.
Take the global financial crisis, for example. Or the explosion of digital banking. These were massive disruptions that took almost everyone by surprise, despite all the data and forecasting models in the world. Why? Because the human element — the unexpected variables — is impossible to capture completely in a forecasting model.
Models are useful for illuminating trends, but they’re not infallible guides to the future. They can’t predict how your members will respond to a new service or how a competitor’s new tech rollout might shift the market. They offer scenarios, but strategy involves making decisions with the understanding that no one has a crystal ball.
Strategy is Not Actuarial Science
Think of the world of actuarial science — where professionals use data, probabilities, and formulas to predict risks and returns. They can calculate with a high degree of certainty what the future will look like in specific situations. An annuity, for instance, offers a defined benefit with a fixed, predictable outcome. That’s science. And it works beautifully in certain contexts.
But strategy? It’s not science. It’s not about having a fixed, quantifiable answer to everything. In fact, if you treat strategy like an actuarial science problem, you’re setting yourself up for failure. Why? Because strategy involves navigating unknowns — member preferences, regulatory changes, competitive threats, market shifts. These variables can’t be predicted with absolute certainty. Strategy is about creating options, not locking yourself into a predetermined outcome.
For credit unions, this means understanding that the future of your organization isn’t fully knowable, no matter how much data you have at your fingertips. Your strategy has to be flexible enough to accommodate these uncertainties and responsive to change.
Adaptability is Key to Great Strategy
The truth is, the best strategies are built on adaptability. They don’t aim to predict every twist and turn in the road ahead. They focus on creating a direction and the flexibility to adapt when the unexpected happens. Strategy is like navigating a sailboat through shifting winds. A sailor doesn’t know exactly what the wind will do every minute of the journey. But they do know how to adjust the sails to keep moving toward their destination.
In the same way, a successful credit union strategy requires leaders to remain agile — able to steer in new directions when market conditions, technologies, or member expectations change. That’s the key: the ability to adjust. You can’t predict the future with 100% certainty, but you can prepare your organization to respond to whatever comes next.
And this requires a culture of continuous learning, experimentation, and openness to change. Credit unions need to be comfortable with uncertainty, because the future isn’t static. New competitors, new technologies, and new opportunities will continue to emerge, and your strategy must evolve with them.
What This Means for Credit Union Leaders
For credit union executives and directors, this means reframing how you approach strategy. Instead of seeing it as a fixed, data-driven blueprint that will guarantee results, think of it as a framework for making smart decisions in the face of uncertainty. Use forecasting models to inform your strategy, but don’t rely on them to provide all the answers. They’re just one tool in your toolkit.
Ultimately, strategy is about making decisions that move your organization in the right direction, while staying flexible enough to adapt when the market changes. It’s about creating options, not locking yourself into a rigid plan. And that’s where the real value lies — in building a strategic mindset that can thrive in an unpredictable world.
So, the next time you look at a forecasting model, appreciate its insights, but remember: strategy is not science. It’s about setting a course, adjusting as you go, and staying responsive to the unknowns. If you do that, your credit union will not only survive the future — it will thrive in it.
© 2025 by Jeff Rendel. All rights reserved.
Jeff Rendel, Certified Speaking Professional and Principal of Rising Above Enterprises, works with credit unions that want entrepreneurial results in leadership, sales, service, and strategy. Each year, he addresses and facilitates for more than 100 credit unions and their business partners.
Contact: jeff@jeffrendel.com; www.jeffrendel.com; 951.310.7275 (mobile)